Will Home Prices Rise or Fall in Austin, TX?
How Austin's median sale price, active listings, days on market and the 30-year fixed rate compare with a year ago, plus named forecasts into 2026.
By Priya Natarajan-Wells · Oct 06, 2026 · 10 min read
Austin home prices are lower than they were a year ago by every measure cited below, and homes are selling faster than they did in late 2024. The median sale price in the city of Austin was $540,000 last month, down 1.1% year over year, and homes went under contract after 74 days versus 91 days a year earlier (Redfin, 2025-11). The Austin metro median sits far lower, at $430,000 (Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-12).
This report lays out the latest figures with their sources, then the published forecasts for Austin prices and mortgage rates. Nothing here is a guarantee for any individual house, street or ZIP code — submarket, property type (single-family versus condo) and HOA costs all move numbers around within the same metro.
Where the Market Stands Now
Start with the three numbers most buyers and sellers ask about, and note which geography each one covers — city of Austin and the five-county Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro are not the same market.
Price. The median sale price in the city of Austin was $540,000 last month, down 1.1% from the same month a year earlier (Redfin, 2025-11). Measured per square foot — which strips out changes in the size and type of homes selling — the decline is steeper: $288 per square foot, down 8.9% year over year (Redfin, 2025-11). Across the wider metro, the Austin Board of Realtors put the median residential price at $430,000, with the city of Austin at $565,000 on its own count, and said median home values declined a little over 1% from November 2024 to November 2025 (Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-12). Zillow's index, which tracks typical value rather than closed sales, had the average Austin home value at $490,209 in November 2025, about 6.6% below the same point in 2024, and recorded the largest month-to-month drop of any major U.S. metro at roughly 1.1% between Oct. 31 and Nov. 30 (Zillow via KXAN, 2025-11). The spread between those figures is not an error — a closed-sale median, a metro median and a home-value index answer different questions.
Inventory. The most recent county-level listing count available here is 6,635 active listings in Travis County in September 2025, alongside 1,065 closed sales that month, up 9.5% year over year, with the Travis County median at $485,000, down 3.6% from a year earlier (Unlock MLS / Austin Board of Realtors via CultureMap Austin, 2025-09). For context on supply, for-sale and rental housing in the Austin area grew by more than 20%, roughly 211,000 units, between April 2020 and July 2025 (Realtor.com via Business Insider, 2025).
Speed of sale. Austin homes sold after 74 days on market last month, compared with 91 days in the same month of 2024 (Redfin, 2025-11) — faster, but still a market where sellers are negotiating. The sold-to-list price ratio fell to 96.7% in September 2025, the lowest September reading since 2011 (Team Price Real Estate, Austin-area MLS data, 2025-09).
Demand signals are split. Pending sales across the metro rose about 5% year over year in November 2025, while closed sales fell nearly 16% over the same month (Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-11). For the full year, 27,825 homes sold across the metro in 2025, down about 5% from 2024, with the 2025 median ranging between $425,000 and $440,000 (Austin American-Statesman / Unlock MLS, 2025).
Market Data at a Glance
Each row states the geography it covers. The mortgage rate is a national weekly average, not an Austin-specific figure, and not a rate you are quoted or approved for.
| Metric | Current value | Value one year earlier | Change | Source and as-of date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price, city of Austin | $540,000 | 1.1% higher (dollar figure not published in the cited release) | −1.1% | Redfin, 2025-11 |
| Median residential price, Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro | $430,000 | Roughly 1% higher | Down a little over 1% | Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-12 |
| Typical home value index, Austin | $490,209 | 6.6% higher | −6.6% | Zillow via KXAN, 2025-11 |
| Median price per square foot, Austin | $288 | 8.9% higher | −8.9% | Redfin, 2025-11 |
| Active listings, Travis County | 6,635 | Not published in the cited release | n/a | Unlock MLS / Austin Board of Realtors via CultureMap Austin, 2025-09 |
| Days on market, Austin | 74 days | 91 days | −17 days | Redfin, 2025-11 |
| Sold-to-list price ratio, Austin area | 96.7% | Not published; lowest September reading since 2011 | n/a | Team Price Real Estate, Austin-area MLS, 2025-09 |
| Closed sales, Austin metro (month) | Down nearly 16% year over year | — | −16% | Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-11 |
| Pending sales, Austin metro (month) | Up about 5% year over year | — | +5% | Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-11 |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate, U.S. weekly average | 6.21% | 6.72% | −0.51 percentage points | Freddie Mac, 2025-12-18 |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate, U.S. weekly average (latest) | 6.15%, lowest level of 2025 | Started 2025 close to 7% | Lower | Freddie Mac, 2025-12-31 |
What's Likely to Happen Next
Published forecasts for Austin point in one direction for prices and another for financing costs. Each is a model output with a baseline date, not a promise.
Austin home values: Zillow Research's baseline forecast from September 2025 projected a −0.3% change by October 2025, −1.4% by December 2025, and −1.8% over the one-year period ending September 2026 (Zillow Research via Norada Real Estate, 2025-09). That is a modest single-digit decline in the typical Austin home value, not a collapse — and it is a metro-level index, so individual submarkets can run above or below it.
A second model, Reventure App's April 2025 projection, put Austin's home price change at −0.4% by October 2025, and noted Austin home values had already fallen 20.4% from their pandemic peak (Reventure App / Norada Real Estate via Newsweek, 2025-04). Realtor.com's figures tell a similar story on asking prices: the Austin metro asking price has dropped nearly 25% from its peak, and 79% of 2022 homebuyers now own property worth less than they paid (Realtor.com via Business Insider, 2025).
Mortgage rates: Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group forecast the 30-year fixed rate to end 2025 at 6.4% and 2026 at 5.9% (Fannie Mae ESR, September 2025 Economic and Housing Outlook). The actual weekly average had already undercut the 2025 figure, at 6.15% on December 31, 2025 (Freddie Mac, 2025-12-31). A move toward the high-5s in 2026 would be the first sustained break below 6% in this cycle; it is a national forecast and says nothing about the rate any individual borrower is offered, which depends on credit score, loan type (conventional, FHA, VA or jumbo), down payment and property type.
Sales volume: the National Association of Realtors predicts existing-home sales will jump 14% in 2026 (NAR via Austin Business Journal, 2025). That is a national forecast. Austin's own volume ran the other way in 2025 — 27,825 metro sales, down about 5% from 2024 (Austin American-Statesman / Unlock MLS, 2025) — though the 5% year-over-year rise in November pending sales (Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-11) is the kind of leading indicator that would have to keep building for a volume rebound to show up in Austin closings.
What this means for a decision depends on your circumstances, not on the forecast alone. If you plan to own for under five years and are buying at the metro median, a projected −1.8% value change through September 2026 (Zillow Research, 2025-09) can outweigh selling costs. If you have a 20% down payment, stable income and a 10-year horizon, the 74-day median market time and 96.7% sold-to-list ratio give you negotiating room that did not exist in 2021. Talk to a licensed agent, lender and tax professional about your specific numbers.
Forces Driving the Trend
- New construction supply. The Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro authorized 32,294 new residential units in 2024, ranking 6th among major U.S. metros for total permits and 2nd for permits per 1,000 existing homes at 28.6 (Construction Coverage / U.S. Census Bureau via CultureMap Austin, 2024). Few large metros add supply at that rate relative to their existing stock.
- The overall supply build-out since 2020. For-sale and rental housing in the Austin area grew by over 20%, about 211,000 units, from April 2020 to July 2025 (Realtor.com via Business Insider, 2025). Statewide, Texas listings reached 123,000 in April 2025, 53% above normal (Reventure App via Newsweek, 2025-04).
- Seller pricing power. The Austin-area sold-to-list price ratio was 96.7% in September 2025, the lowest September figure since 2011 (Team Price Real Estate, 2025-09) — the typical seller is accepting roughly 3% below asking.
- Negative equity among recent buyers. 79% of people who bought in Austin in 2022 now own a home worth less than they paid, with metro asking prices down nearly 25% from peak (Realtor.com via Business Insider, 2025). Owners in that position often cannot sell without bringing cash to closing, which holds some listings off the market.
- Financing costs easing. The 30-year fixed rate averaged 6.15% on December 31, 2025, down from close to 7% at the start of 2025 and from 6.72% a year earlier (Freddie Mac, 2025-12-31 and 2025-12-18). Cheaper money loosens the lock-in effect on owners holding older, lower-rate loans and supports the 5% year-over-year rise in metro pending sales recorded in November (Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-11).
- The gap between contracts and closings. Pending sales rose about 5% while closed sales fell nearly 16% in the same month (Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-11). Deals are being written faster than they are finishing, which is why the median time on market fell to 74 days from 91 (Redfin, 2025-11) while volume stayed weak.
Frequently asked questions
Why do I see Austin median prices of $430,000, $490,209 and $540,000 in the same month?
They measure different things over different geographies. Redfin's $540,000 is the median closed sale price inside the city of Austin (Redfin, 2025-11). The Austin Board of Realtors' $430,000 is the median for the whole Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos metro, with the city at $565,000 on its own count (ABoR via KXAN, 2025-12). Zillow's $490,209 is a home-value index for Austin, not a sales median (Zillow via KXAN, 2025-11). Travis County alone had a $485,000 median in September 2025 (Unlock MLS via CultureMap Austin, 2025-09). Always check which boundary a figure covers before comparing it to your own house.
How far have Austin prices fallen from the peak?
It depends on the measure. Reventure App put the decline in Austin home values at 20.4% from pandemic peak highs as of April 2025 (via Newsweek, 2025-04). Realtor.com measured metro asking prices down nearly 25% from peak (via Business Insider, 2025), and Spyglass Realty put Q4 2025 median prices around $440,000, roughly 18% below the 2022 peak of $550,000. Realtor.com also recorded a July 2025 median list price of $510,950, down 4.9% year over year and 14.8% since 2022 (via Newsweek, 2025-07).
What mortgage rate should I use when I run the numbers?
Use the current published average as a starting point and then get an actual quote. The 30-year fixed averaged 6.15% nationally on December 31, 2025, its lowest level of the year, after starting 2025 near 7% (Freddie Mac, 2025-12-31); two weeks earlier it was 6.21%, against 6.72% a year prior (Freddie Mac, 2025-12-18). Fannie Mae's ESR group forecast 5.9% for the end of 2026 (Fannie Mae ESR, September 2025). Your own rate will differ by credit score, down payment, loan type (conventional, FHA, VA, jumbo) and whether the property is a condo or single-family home, and no one can promise you approval or a particular rate.
Is Austin selling faster or slower than last year?
Faster on time-on-market, weaker on closings. Median days on market fell to 74 from 91 a year earlier (Redfin, 2025-11), while closed sales across the metro dropped nearly 16% year over year in the same month and pending sales rose about 5% (Austin Board of Realtors via KXAN, 2025-11). For the full year, 27,825 metro homes sold in 2025, down about 5% from 2024 (Austin American-Statesman / Unlock MLS, 2025).
Should I list my Austin home now or wait?
That depends on your equity position and your timeline, not on a market call. If you bought in 2022, note that 79% of that year's Austin buyers own homes worth less than they paid (Realtor.com via Business Insider, 2025), so run a net-sheet with your agent before listing. If you have equity and need to move within 12 months, Zillow Research's September 2025 baseline projects a further −1.8% in Austin home values through September 2026, which argues against waiting purely for a price recovery. Price strategy matters too: the area sold-to-list ratio was 96.7% in September 2025 (Team Price Real Estate, 2025-09). A licensed agent and, where contracts or taxes are involved, an attorney or tax professional should review your specific situation.
Sources
- Redfin — Austin Housing Market — Redfin (2025-11)
- Austin Board of Realtors (via KXAN) — Austin metro home value dip among largest in the US, Zillow says (2025-12)
- Freddie Mac — Mortgage Rates Drop Slightly (2025-12-18)
- Freddie Mac — Mortgage Rates Drop to Lowest Level in 2025 (2025-12-31)
- Fannie Mae (Economic and Strategic Research Group, via Homebuying Institute) — Austin-Round Rock Housing Market Forecast for 2026 (2025-09)
- Zillow Research (via Norada Real Estate) — Austin Real Estate Market Forecast 2025 to 2030 (2025-09)
- National Association of Realtors (via Austin Business Journal/Luxe Homes Austin) — More homes will hit the market in 2026. Here's the pricing outlook. (2025-undated)
- Construction Coverage / U.S. Census Bureau (via CultureMap Austin) — Austin booms as No. 6 metro for new home building in U.S. (2024)
- Unlock MLS / Austin Board of Realtors (via CultureMap Austin) — Austin housing market shows stability with more sales (2025-09)
- Austin American-Statesman / Unlock MLS — Austin's housing market cooled in 2025 with falling sales and still-high prices (2025)
- Team Price Real Estate (Austin-area MLS data) — Austin Housing Market Update September 2025: Sold-to-List Ratio Hits 14-Year Low (2025-09)
- Realtor.com (via Newsweek) — Austin Home Prices Drop Again Amid Weakening Real Estate Market (2025-07)
- Zillow (via San Antonio Express-News/MySA) — This Texas city has the No. 1 fastest-dropping home prices in the nation (2025-10)
- Reventure App (Nick Gerli, via Newsweek) — Texas Faces Major Housing Market Correction as Prices Drop Across State (2025-04)
- Spyglass Realty — Austin Housing Market 2025 (2025-undated)
Written by
Priya Natarajan-Wells
Priya writes about first-time buyers and the emotional math of mortgages. She likes tracing how a single rate change ripples through an ordinary family's plans. Her pieces tend to start with a kitchen table, not a spreadsheet.
