Phoenix Housing Market Predictions: Will the Price Correction Continue?
Single-family prices held roughly flat through August 2026 while condo values slid, and the 30-year fixed rate sat near its highest point in a year.
By Tobias Lindqvist · Oct 06, 2026 · 10 min read
Phoenix prices are not falling across the board. The metro's median sale price was $454,699 over the three months ending August 2026, up 1.0% year over year (Redfin, 2026-08), while active listings held near 21,971, down 0.4% from a year earlier (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08). The weakness is concentrated in attached housing: condo medians fell 4.6% over the year to $290,000 (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08).
This report sets out what the August 2026 data shows for Phoenix, which forecasts exist and who published them, and the specific local and financing conditions behind the numbers. It covers the Phoenix metro only — national figures are labeled as such — and it is general information, not advice on your own purchase, sale or refinance.
Where the Market Stands Now
The most recent Phoenix metro reading comes from August 2026. Redfin puts the median sale price at $454,699 over the three months ending August 2026, up 1.0% from the same three-month window a year earlier (Redfin, 2026-08). Homes.com, using CoStar Analytics data for the same month, puts the Phoenix median at $450,000 in August 2026, a gain of $5,000 or 1.1% year over year — against a 2.1% national gain over the identical period (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08).
Inventory is close to where it was a year ago. Phoenix recorded 21,971 homes for sale in August 2026, 92 fewer than in August 2025, a 0.4% decrease (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08). That translates to 3.8 months of supply (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08).
Time on market tells two slightly different stories depending on the measure. Redfin reports Phoenix homes selling in around 57 days over the three months ending August 2026, versus 60 days over the same period a year earlier (Redfin, 2026-08). Homes.com reports a median of 69 days on market for August 2026 alone, with a 95% sale-to-list price ratio (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08). The gap reflects different geographies and different averaging windows, not a contradiction.
The clearest split in the August 2026 data is by property type. Over the prior year, the Phoenix median single-family price rose 1.4% to $467,500, while the median townhome price fell 3.7% to $363,000 and the median condo price fell 4.6% to $290,000 (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08). If you own or are shopping for a condo, the correction is already in your segment's numbers; if you are in detached single-family, it is not showing up in the median.
Financing costs moved against buyers over the same stretch. The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.28% as of October 1, 2026, up from 7.03% the prior week and from 6.34% a year earlier (Freddie Mac, 2026-10-01).
Market Data at a Glance
All rows cover the Phoenix metro except the 30-year fixed rate, which is a U.S. average.
| Metric | Current value | One year earlier | Change | Source (as of) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sale price (3 mo. ending Aug) | $454,699 | — (Redfin reports change only) | +1.0% YoY | Redfin, 2026-08 |
| Median sale price (single month) | $450,000 | $445,000 | +1.1% (+$5,000) | Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08 |
| Median single-family price | $467,500 | — | +1.4% YoY | Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08 |
| Median condo price | $290,000 | — | -4.6% YoY | Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08 |
| Median townhome price | $363,000 | — | -3.7% YoY | Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08 |
| Active listings | 21,971 | 22,063 | -0.4% (-92) | Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08 |
| Months of supply | 3.8 | — | — | Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08 |
| Days on market (3 mo. ending Aug) | 57 days | 60 days | -3 days | Redfin, 2026-08 |
| Median days on market (single month) | 69 days | — | — | Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08 |
| Sale-to-list price ratio | 95% | — | — | Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08 |
| Homes sold | 4,995 | 5,263 | -5.1% (-268) | Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08 |
| Homes sold (alternate count) | 4,178 | 4,020 | +3.9% | Redfin, 2026-08 |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate (U.S.) | 7.28% | 6.34% | +0.94 pts | Freddie Mac, 2026-10-01 |
The two sales counts differ because Redfin and CoStar define the Phoenix area and the transaction set differently. Use one source consistently rather than mixing them when you track month-to-month movement.
What's Likely to Happen Next
No Phoenix-specific price forecast appears in the sourced data below, so treat everything in this section as a national projection unless stated otherwise, and treat the dates attached to each forecast as part of the forecast.
Home prices (national). Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group projects its Home Price Index rising 1.3% over calendar 2026, down from a projected 2.5% rise in 2025 and an actual 4.4% rise in 2024 (Fannie Mae ESR Group, 2025-11-21). Separately, a panel of more than 100 housing experts surveyed for Fannie Mae's Home Price Expectations Survey with Pulsenomics forecast national home price growth averaging 2.9% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026 on the same index, revised down from the prior quarter's 3.4% and 3.3% estimates (Fannie Mae/Pulsenomics, 2025-06). Those two national forecasts sit roughly 1.5 points apart for 2026, which is itself a measure of how uncertain the range is.
Home sales (national). The Fannie Mae ESR Group's November 2025 forecast projects overall home sales rising 7.3% in 2026, cut from the 8.9% increase it forecast one month earlier (Fannie Mae ESR Group, 2025-11-21). Phoenix is running the other way on the most recent monthly print: metro sales fell 5.1% year over year in August 2026 (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08).
Mortgage rates. Fannie Mae forecast the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaging 6.2% in the first quarter of 2026, dipping to 5.9% by the end of 2026 and holding near 5.9% through 2027 (Fannie Mae ESR Group, 2025-11-21). Measured against the actual reading, that forecast has not held: Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.28% as of October 1, 2026, roughly 1.4 points above the end-2026 path Fannie Mae published. That is the single most useful caution in this report — a rate forecast from a major institution missed by more than a full point over about ten months, so build your own budget on the rate you can actually lock, not on a projected one.
What this means for reading Phoenix in the coming quarters. The metro's own August 2026 numbers — a 1.1% year-over-year median gain, 3.8 months of supply, 95% sale-to-list, 69 median days on market (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08) — describe a market where buyers have some negotiating room and sellers are still clearing close to asking. Watch those four metrics in the same source month to month. If months of supply moves above 4.0 and the sale-to-list ratio slips below 95% in the same month, that is a measurable shift; a single month of median price movement is not.
No one can tell you what a specific Phoenix home will sell for, when it will close, or what rate you will be offered. Run your own numbers with a licensed agent and a lender before acting on any forecast here.
Forces Driving the Trend
- The gap between today's rate and last year's. The 30-year fixed averaged 7.28% on October 1, 2026, versus 6.34% a year earlier — a 0.94-point increase (Freddie Mac, 2026-10-01). Anyone holding a mortgage written when rates were lower faces a higher payment on the same loan balance if they move, which suppresses both listings and sales. Phoenix sales fell 5.1% year over year in August 2026 (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08).
- A rebuilt, but no longer growing, supply of listings. Phoenix-area active listings climbed to just under 20,000 in April 2026, a level only previously surpassed in April and May of the prior year, after bottoming near 4,000 listings during the 2022 buying frenzy (ABC15 Arizona, reporting by Garrett Archer, 2026-05-05). By August 2026 the count was 21,971, but down 0.4% year over year (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08) — supply has normalized rather than kept climbing.
- Attached housing pulling the average down. Condo medians fell 4.6% to $290,000 and townhomes fell 3.7% to $363,000 over the year to August 2026, while single-family rose 1.4% to $467,500 (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08). HOA dues, insurance and lending rules for condos differ by project and can restrict the buyer pool; if you are tracking "Phoenix prices," check which property type the figure covers.
- Submarket differences inside Greater Phoenix. The City of Phoenix had 3.8 months of supply against the Greater Phoenix market's 4.4 as of year-to-date October 2025 data (Phoenix REALTORS®, 2025-10). Two sellers in the same metro can face materially different conditions.
- Pace of sale, measured consistently. Homes sold in around 57 days over the three months ending August 2026 versus 60 days a year earlier (Redfin, 2026-08) — a three-day improvement, while the single-month median was 69 days with a 95% sale-to-list ratio (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08). Slower absorption plus sub-asking sale prices is where buyer leverage actually shows up.
- A flat multi-year price base. Phoenix's 2025 median sold price for a single-family home was $485,000, about 1.0% above $480,000 in 2024 (FlexMLS data, 2025), and Greater Phoenix's year-to-date single-family median through October 2025 was $480,000, up 0.4% over 2024 (Phoenix REALTORS®, 2025-10). Small annual changes mean monthly swings are noise more often than signal.
Frequently asked questions
Is Phoenix actually in a price correction?
It depends on the property type. Over the year to August 2026, the median condo price fell 4.6% to $290,000 and the median townhome price fell 3.7% to $363,000, while the median single-family price rose 1.4% to $467,500 (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08). Redfin's metro-wide median was $454,699 for the three months ending August 2026, up 1.0% year over year (Redfin, 2026-08). So declines are measurable in attached housing and not in the detached single-family median.
Why do Redfin and Homes.com report different Phoenix numbers for the same month?
Different geographies and different averaging windows. For August 2026, Redfin reports a $454,699 median over a rolling three-month window and 4,178 homes sold, up from 4,020 a year earlier (Redfin, 2026-08). Homes.com/CoStar reports a $450,000 single-month median and 4,995 sales, down from 5,263 (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08). Pick one source and track it consistently rather than comparing across them.
Are mortgage rates going to drop before I buy?
No one can tell you that. Fannie Mae's ESR Group forecast the 30-year fixed averaging 6.2% in Q1 2026 and 5.9% by the end of 2026 (Fannie Mae ESR Group, 2025-11-21). The actual Freddie Mac 30-year fixed average was 7.28% as of October 1, 2026, up from 7.03% the prior week and 6.34% a year earlier (Freddie Mac, 2026-10-01). Qualify and budget on a rate you can lock today; your own rate depends on credit score, down payment, loan type (conventional, FHA, VA, jumbo) and property type.
How long should I expect a Phoenix home to take to sell?
The two August 2026 benchmarks are 57 days over the three months ending August 2026, against 60 days in the same window a year earlier (Redfin, 2026-08), and a 69-day single-month median with a 95% sale-to-list price ratio (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08). Those are metro medians. No timeline or sale price is guaranteed for any individual home — condition, price band, HOA and submarket all move it.
Should I buy now or wait for prices to fall further?
That turns on your own circumstances, not the metro median. If you are shopping condos, the segment median was down 4.6% year over year to $290,000 in August 2026 (Homes.com/CoStar Analytics, 2026-08) and lender rules for condo projects may limit your options. If you need a detached single-family home in the City of Phoenix, supply was tighter there (3.8 months) than in Greater Phoenix (4.4 months) as of year-to-date October 2025 (Phoenix REALTORS®, 2025-10). Weigh your credit score, down payment, how long you plan to hold, and the payment at 7.28% on a 30-year fixed (Freddie Mac, 2026-10-01) with a licensed agent and a lender.
Sources
- Redfin — 2026 Phoenix Housing Market: House Prices & Trends as of September (2026-08)
- Homes.com (CoStar Analytics) — Phoenix Housing Market Report - Homes.com (2026-08)
- Freddie Mac — Mortgage Rates - Freddie Mac (Primary Mortgage Market Survey) (2026-10-01)
- Fannie Mae ESR Group (via Real Estate News) — Home sales projections fall in revised 2026 forecast (2025-11-21)
- Fannie Mae (Home Price Expectations Survey, with Pulsenomics, LLC) — Expert Panel Expects Moderating Home Price Growth through 2026 (2025-06)
- ABC15 Arizona (KNXV), reporting by Garrett Archer — Phoenix housing inventory surges toward record highs (2026-05-05)
- Phoenix REALTORS® (via AZ Big Media) — Phoenix housing market outpaces national trends again in 2025 (2025-10)
- Sweep Phoenix AZ Homes (FlexMLS data) — 2025 Phoenix AZ Home Price (2025)
Written by
Tobias Lindqvist
Tobias covers floor plans, renovation trends, and the small design decisions that change how a home works. He's suspicious of trends that promise to 'future-proof' a house. He prefers writing about function over finishes.
