Florida Housing Market Forecast: Where Prices Could Head Next
What the Florida Realtors, Redfin and Freddie Mac releases actually show about prices, supply and rates — and which numbers to pull before you act.
By Desmond Achebe-Park · Oct 06, 2026 · 11 min read
Florida is not one housing market, and the data releases that cover it do not line up neatly. Florida Realtors (2026-01) reported the statewide median sales price for existing single-family homes unchanged year over year in December 2025, while the statewide condo-townhouse median at year-end 2025 was down from year-end 2024 — in the same release. Metro-level Redfin figures for the three months ending August (Redfin, 2026-08) show Tampa and Broward County medians up year over year and Orlando's down.
This report tells you which number comes from which source and as-of date, what the named forecasters are projecting, and what to check yourself. It does not reproduce every dollar figure — pull those from the cited releases, because they are revised.
Where the Market Stands Now
Start with the three numbers that matter and note that they come from different publishers on different dates.
Price. Redfin publishes a statewide Florida median sale price with a year-over-year change and a homes-sold count; the most recent reading cited here is from August (Redfin, 2026-08). The state association's own series tells a slightly different story because it covers existing single-family homes only: Florida Realtors (2026-01) reported the December 2025 statewide median sales price for existing single-family homes unchanged from December 2024. For the full year, the 2025 statewide single-family median came in below 2024 (Florida Realtors, 2026-01). Condos are the weaker leg: the statewide condo-townhouse median at year-end 2025 was down from year-end 2024 (Florida Realtors, 2026-01).
Inventory. The clearest supply figure available is from the same release: statewide condo-townhouse inventory stood at 8.8 months' supply at the end of 4Q 2025, with single-family active listings at a lower months'-supply level in the same quarter (Florida Realtors, 2026-01). Six months is the conventional balance point, so condos sit well above it statewide while single-family sits below the condo figure.
Days on market. Redfin reports a statewide Florida median days on market with a year-over-year change as of August (Redfin, 2026-08). Axios, citing Redfin data (2025-10-16), separately compared Florida's August median days on market with the national median for the same month — a like-for-like comparison worth checking before you price a listing.
One demand signal runs counter to the price softness: statewide closed sales of existing single-family homes rose year over year in 4Q 2025, even as the median price slipped slightly over the same quarter (Florida Realtors, 2026-01). More transactions at flat-to-lower prices is a different market from one where both are falling.
Metro divergence is large. Over the three months ending August, the Tampa median sale price was up year over year with longer average days on market, the Orlando median was down year over year with longer days on market, and the Broward County median was up year over year with shorter days on market than a year earlier (Redfin, 2026-08). Same metric, same window, three different outcomes.
Market Data at a Glance
Every row below names its geography, its publisher and its as-of date. Where a release reports a direction and the dollar figure sits in the publication itself, the cell says so rather than guessing a number.
| Metric (geography) | Current value | Value one year earlier | Change | Source and as-of date |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Median sales price, existing single-family (Florida statewide) | December 2025 level as published | December 2024 level | Unchanged year over year | Florida Realtors, 2026-01 |
| Median sales price, existing single-family, full year (Florida statewide) | Full-year 2025 median | Full-year 2024 median | Down year over year | Florida Realtors, 2026-01 |
| Median price, condo-townhouse (Florida statewide) | Year-end 2025 level | Year-end 2024 level | Down year over year | Florida Realtors, 2026-01 |
| Active inventory, condo-townhouse (Florida statewide) | 8.8 months' supply, end of 4Q 2025 | Prior-year months' supply as published | Compare in release | Florida Realtors, 2026-01 |
| Active inventory, single-family (Florida statewide) | Months'-supply level, end of 4Q 2025, below the condo figure | Prior-year months' supply as published | Compare in release | Florida Realtors, 2026-01 |
| Closed sales, existing single-family (Florida statewide) | 4Q 2025 count | 4Q 2024 count | Up year over year | Florida Realtors, 2026-01 |
| Median sale price (Florida statewide) | August level with homes-sold count | August a year earlier | Year-over-year change as published | Redfin, 2026-08 |
| Median days on market (Florida statewide) | August level | August a year earlier | Year-over-year change as published | Redfin, 2026-08 |
| Median sale price, 3 months ending August (Tampa, FL) | Published median | Same window a year earlier | Up year over year; longer average days on market | Redfin, 2026-08 |
| Median sale price, 3 months ending August (Orlando, FL) | Published median | Same window a year earlier | Down year over year; longer average days on market | Redfin, 2026-08 |
| Median sale price, 3 months ending August (Broward County, FL) | Published median | Same window a year earlier | Up year over year; shorter average days on market | Redfin, 2026-08 |
| 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, U.S. weekly average | Week of 2026-09-17 reading | Weeks of 2026-06-11 and 2026-05-21 readings | Compare the three PMMS releases directly | Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey |
The mortgage row is a national average for 30-year fixed conforming loans, not a Florida figure and not a quote you can lock. FHA, VA, jumbo and 15-year fixed pricing all differ, as does any 5/1 ARM.
What's Likely to Happen Next
Every projection below is attached to a named institution and a dated publication. Two cautions before you read them: all of these forecasts are national, and Florida has already diverged from the national picture — most visibly in condos, where the statewide median fell at year-end 2025 against year-end 2024 while supply sat at 8.8 months (Florida Realtors, 2026-01). Treat the magnitude figures inside each release as the authoritative numbers; they are revised monthly.
Home sales, 2026, direction up: Fannie Mae's Economic and Strategic Research Group projected a gradual housing-market rebound through 2026 in its December 2025 Housing Forecast, with rising home sales, moderating home-price growth and improving mortgage activity as rates slowly ease (National Mortgage Professional reporting Fannie Mae ESR data, 2025-12-26). The specific growth rate for 2026 sales is in that release.
Home sales growth, 2026, revised downward: one month earlier, the same ESR Group cut its 2026 home-sales growth projection from its earlier forecasts (Real Estate News reporting Fannie Mae ESR data, 2025-11-21). The revision matters as much as the level — the direction of travel in the forecast itself has been down.
30-year fixed mortgage rate, through end-2026, direction down: Fannie Mae's ESR Group's May 2025 outlook projected specific 30-year mortgage rate levels for end-2025 and end-2026, alongside a total single-family home sales figure for end-2025 of which existing-home sales made up part (The MortgagePoint reporting Fannie Mae ESR data, 2025-05-21). Read those two rate levels next to Freddie Mac's actual PMMS prints for the weeks of 2026-05-21, 2026-06-11 and 2026-09-17 to see how the forecast has tracked.
Home values, month-ahead to year-ahead: Zillow Research's Home Value Forecast publishes projected changes in the Zillow Home Value Index at month-ahead, quarter-ahead and year-ahead horizons (Zillow Research, undated). It is produced for metros and ZIP codes as well as nationally, so it is the one of these models you can actually run down to a Florida metro. Nationally, the Zillow Home Value Index for November posted month-over-month and year-over-year gains and marked the first annual inflation-adjusted increase since April 2024 (Advisor Perspectives reporting ZHVI data, 2025-12-18).
What none of these say is what any individual Florida house will sell for, or when. A ZHVI or ZHVF value is a model output, not an appraisal and not a market price. On the demand side, the Florida Realtors chief economist noted in the April 2025 statewide release that high mortgage rates were impeding sales as the statewide single-family median fell year over year (Florida Realtors, 2025-05) — the clearest statement from a named Florida economist linking rates to this state's volumes.
Forces Driving the Trend
- Condo supply at 8.8 months. Statewide condo-townhouse inventory ended 4Q 2025 at 8.8 months' supply, above the single-family months'-supply level in the same release (Florida Realtors, 2026-01). Supply above roughly six months generally shifts negotiating leverage toward buyers, which is consistent with the statewide condo median falling from year-end 2024 to year-end 2025.
- Mortgage rates as the volume throttle. Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey printed U.S. weekly 30-year fixed averages in the weeks of 2026-05-21, 2026-06-11 and 2026-09-17; the Florida Realtors chief economist attributed impeded sales to high mortgage rates in the April 2025 statewide release (Florida Realtors, 2025-05). Rate moves show up in Florida closing volumes within a quarter or two.
- Lock-in among existing owners. Owners holding 30-year fixed loans originated below the Freddie Mac PMMS levels printed in 2026 have a direct financial reason not to list, which restrains resale supply even where demand is steady. Fannie Mae's ESR Group's December 2025 forecast ties improving mortgage activity to rates easing (National Mortgage Professional, 2025-12-26).
- Transaction counts rising while prices sit flat. Statewide closed sales of existing single-family homes were up year over year in 4Q 2025 with the median down slightly over the same quarter (Florida Realtors, 2026-01). Buyers are transacting; sellers are conceding on price rather than waiting.
- Metro-level divergence inside one state. Over the identical three months ending August, Tampa's median sale price rose year over year, Orlando's fell, and Broward County's rose with shorter average days on market than a year earlier (Redfin, 2026-08). A statewide median conceals all three.
- Time on market versus the national benchmark. Redfin's statewide Florida median days on market carried a year-over-year change as of August (Redfin, 2026-08), and Axios, citing Redfin, compared Florida's August median days on market with the national median (2025-10-16). Days on market is the earliest signal of price direction in most Florida submarkets — watch it before you watch medians.
Frequently asked questions
Are Florida condos really weaker than single-family homes?
On the two measures in the same release, yes. Florida Realtors (2026-01) reported the statewide condo-townhouse median price at year-end 2025 below year-end 2024, with condo-townhouse inventory at 8.8 months' supply at the end of 4Q 2025 — above the statewide single-family months'-supply level in that same quarter. Single-family told a different story: the December 2025 statewide median was unchanged from December 2024. Condo economics in Florida also turn on building-specific HOA reserves, assessments and insurance, which no statewide median captures; read the estoppel and reserve study for any specific building.
What is the current 30-year fixed mortgage rate, and will I get it?
The most recent reading cited here is Freddie Mac's Primary Mortgage Market Survey U.S. weekly 30-year fixed average for the week of 2026-09-17, with earlier prints for the weeks of 2026-06-11 and 2026-05-21. That is a national average for conforming 30-year fixed loans, not a quote and not a Florida-specific number. Your own rate depends on credit score, loan-to-value, loan type (conventional, FHA, VA or jumbo), points paid and lender pricing on the day you lock — no article can tell you what you will be offered or approved for.
Do national forecasts like Fannie Mae's apply to Florida?
Not directly. Fannie Mae's ESR Group December 2025 Housing Forecast projects a gradual national rebound through 2026 with rising sales and moderating price growth (National Mortgage Professional, 2025-12-26), and the same group revised its 2026 home-sales growth projection downward in November 2025 (Real Estate News, 2025-11-21). Florida ran differently in the same window: the statewide single-family median was flat in December 2025 year over year while the full-year 2025 median came in below 2024 (Florida Realtors, 2026-01). For a metro-level view, Zillow Research's Home Value Forecast publishes month-, quarter- and year-ahead projections of the Zillow Home Value Index below the national level — bearing in mind a ZHVI figure is a model estimate, not an appraised or market value.
Is this a buyer's market or a seller's market in Florida?
It depends which property type and which metro. Statewide condo-townhouse supply at 8.8 months at the end of 4Q 2025 (Florida Realtors, 2026-01) points one way; single-family supply in the same quarter sat lower. Over the three months ending August, Broward County's median sale price was up year over year with shorter average days on market, while Orlando's median was down with longer days on market (Redfin, 2026-08). Check months' supply and median days on market for your specific property type and ZIP code before assuming either label applies.
Should I buy now or wait for rates to fall?
That turns on your own numbers, not the forecast. If you are financing and your credit score, debt-to-income and down payment put you near a lender's pricing cutoffs, a Freddie Mac PMMS move of the size seen between the weeks of 2026-05-21 and 2026-09-17 changes your payment materially. If you are shopping condos in a submarket near the statewide 8.8-months' supply reading (Florida Realtors, 2026-01), you have negotiating room now that may narrow if supply falls. If your timeline is under two years, transaction costs usually dominate price direction. Run your scenario with a licensed loan officer and, on contract terms, a Florida real estate attorney or agent.
Sources
- Florida Realtors — Fla.’s 2025 Housing Market: Single-Family Sales Up; Inventory and Prices Stabilizing (2026-01)
- Florida Realtors — Fla.’s April Housing: Inventory Up, Prices Ease (2025-05)
- Redfin — Florida Housing Market: House Prices & Trends (2026-08)
- Axios (citing Redfin data) — Florida homes sit on the market for months (2025-10-16)
- Redfin — 2026 Tampa Housing Market: House Prices & Trends as of August (2026-08)
- Redfin — 2026 Orlando Housing Market: House Prices & Trends as of August (2026-08)
- Redfin — 2026 Broward County, FL Housing Market: House Prices & Trends as of August (2026-08)
- Freddie Mac — Mortgage Rates Average 6.95% (2026-09-17)
- Freddie Mac — Mortgage Rates Average 6.52% (2026-06-11)
- Freddie Mac — Mortgage Rates Average 6.51% (2026-05-21)
- The MortgagePoint (reporting Fannie Mae ESR Group data) — Fannie Mae Forecasts Market Momentum Building Into 2026 (2025-05-21)
- Real Estate News (reporting Fannie Mae ESR Group data) — Home sales projections fall in revised 2026 forecast (2025-11-21)
- National Mortgage Professional (reporting Fannie Mae ESR Group data) — Fannie Mae: Moderate Housing Market Growth Into 2026 (2025-12-26)
- Zillow Research — Housing Data
- Advisor Perspectives (reporting Zillow Home Value Index data) — Zillow Home Value Index: "Real" Home Values Edge Higher (2025-12-18)
Written by
Desmond Achebe-Park
Desmond covers the renter's side of the market, from lease fine print to the etiquette of negotiating with landlords. He's interested in how small cities absorb people priced out of bigger ones. He writes with a skeptic's eye toward anything called a 'luxury amenity.'
