Chicago Housing Market Report: Inventory and Price Shifts This Month

This Month's Numbers

All monthly figures below are for September 2025, the most recent complete month published. Weekly figures are labelled separately.

Two notes on reading this table. First, the Illinois REALTORS September release reports year-over-year comparisons, not month-over-month ones, so the "last month" column is blank for the sales, price and inventory rows rather than filled with an estimate. Second, the days-on-market figure comes from a different source and a different window: HousingWire's HW Data put the Chicago median at 56 days with an average of 101 days in the week of October 9, 2025, a gap that reflects a pocket of older, unsold listings pulling the average up (HousingWire, 2025-10-09).

The same HousingWire snapshot showed a Chicago metro median list price of $319,900 and roughly 11,000 active listings in the week of October 9, 2025 (HousingWire, 2025-10-09). That is lower than the Illinois REALTORS count of 14,682 for September because the two use different geographic definitions and snapshot dates — compare each series against itself over time, not against the other.

What Changed and Why

Two concrete things drove September's numbers.

The 30-year fixed rate fell 24 basis points in a single month. The monthly average commitment rate for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.35 percent in September 2025, down from 6.59 percent in August 2025, though still above the 6.18 percent average of September 2024 (Illinois REALTORS citing Freddie Mac, 2025-10-23). Contracts that closed in September were mostly written in July and August, so part of the 5.6 percent year-over-year gain in Chicago Metro Area closings — 7,484 against 7,088 — reflects buyers who signed when rates were drifting down. Rates have not kept falling in a straight line: the Freddie Mac 30-year fixed rose four basis points to 6.34 percent in the week ending October 2, 2025, which Freddie Mac's weekly survey tied to capital markets awaiting employment data ahead of the federal government shutdown (National Apartment Association citing Freddie Mac PMMS, 2025-10-02).

Supply stopped growing. Single-family inventories in Illinois declined year over year in September 2025 for the first time since April 2024, ending a 16-month run of increases (Illinois REALTORS citing the Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University, 2025-10-23). In the Chicago Metro Area, active listings fell 6.4 percent to 14,682 from 15,693; in the city itself, listings fell 22.2 percent to 4,290 from 5,516 (Illinois REALTORS, 2025-10-23). Weekly flow data explains the mechanics: in the week of October 9, 2025, 1,183 new Chicago listings came on while 1,511 homes went under contract, so more homes left the market than entered it (HousingWire, 2025-10-09).

Falling supply with rising sales is what pushed pricing power toward sellers on paper. HousingWire's Market Action Index for Chicago read 40.2 in the week of October 9, 2025 — a seller-leaning reading — and that lines up with two separate metrics measured over the same September 2024-to-September 2025 window: inventory down 6.4 percent and closed sales up 5.6 percent (HousingWire, 2025-10-09; Illinois REALTORS, 2025-10-23).

It is not uniform. In the same October 9 week, about 35 percent of active Chicago listings took a price reduction and about 26 percent had been relisted (HousingWire, 2025-10-09). Demand is concentrated on correctly priced, move-in-ready homes; stale listings are what pull the 101-day average so far above the 56-day median.

For the next quarter, the Institute for Housing Studies at DePaul University projects Illinois home sales will fall by nearly 4 percent between October and December 2025 versus the same three months of 2024, while Illinois home prices end December roughly 5 percent higher year over year (Illinois REALTORS citing IHS, 2025-10-23). That forecast is statewide, not Chicago-specific, and it is a projection, not a commitment.

What This Means for You

• If you're buying in the city of Chicago: with 4,290 active listings in September 2025, down 22.2 percent from 5,516 a year earlier (Illinois REALTORS, 2025-10-23), expect thin choice in any one price band and neighborhood. Your leverage is in age-of-listing: about 35 percent of active Chicago listings recorded a price reduction in the week of October 9, 2025 (HousingWire, 2025-10-09), and anything past the 56-day median is where negotiation happens. Whether to write offers this quarter rather than next depends on your own position — a locked pre-approval, cash for a 3 to 5 percent earnest deposit and closing costs, and flexibility on condo versus single-family argue for acting while a specific listing is stale; a credit score you are actively repairing or a down payment still six months from saved argues for waiting, because you cannot be sure what rate you would be quoted.
• If you're selling: metro inventory fell 6.4 percent while closed sales rose 5.6 percent over the same September 2024-to-September 2025 period (Illinois REALTORS, 2025-10-23), so you have fewer direct competitors than last fall. That is not a license to over-price: roughly 26 percent of Chicago listings were relisted and 35 percent cut price in the week of October 9, 2025 (HousingWire, 2025-10-09). Price against the 56-day median rather than the 101-day average, and ask your agent for solds within your own submarket and property type — condo and single-family results in Chicago behave differently, as do HOA-heavy buildings with high assessments.
• If you're renting and weighing a purchase: the metro median sale price was $360,000 in September 2025 (Illinois REALTORS, 2025-10-23). Run that number against a 30-year fixed at the September monthly average of 6.35 percent (Illinois REALTORS citing Freddie Mac, 2025-10-23) plus Cook County property taxes, insurance and any HOA assessment, then compare the total to your current rent and lease end date. Loan type changes the math: FHA, VA and conventional carry different down payments, mortgage insurance rules and condo-approval requirements, and some Chicago buildings are not approved for FHA financing.
• If you're refinancing: the 30-year fixed averaged 6.35 percent in September 2025, down 24 basis points from 6.59 percent in August but still above 6.18 percent in September 2024 (Illinois REALTORS citing Freddie Mac, 2025-10-23). If your existing note is at or below roughly 6 percent, a rate-and-term refinance probably does not clear its own closing costs right now. Nationally, refinance applications fell 21 percent week over week in late September 2025 (National Apartment Association citing the Mortgage Bankers Association, 2025-10-02), which is a national figure, not a Chicago one. Ask your lender for a break-even in months, in writing, before paying for an appraisal.

Frequently asked questions

Sources

1. Illinois REALTORS — Illinois home prices and home sales higher in September; inventory sees year-over-year decline (2025-10-23)
2. HousingWire — What sellers should know as Chicago home prices climb (2025-10-09)
3. National Apartment Association (NAAHQ), citing Freddie Mac PMMS — Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates - October 2025 (2025-10-02)