Neighborhood Home Values: How to Track What's Happening Street by Street
Austin's citywide numbers and your own block can tell two different stories — here's which published sources to pull, how often each updates, and what each one leaves out.
By Tobias Lindqvist · Oct 06, 2026 · 11 min read
Tracking home values street by street means ignoring national headlines and going straight to the published series for your market: Redfin's city and neighborhood pages, Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors inventory reports, FHFA's metro price index, and Census building-permit data. Each is measured differently, released on a different schedule, and covers a different geography — which is why two "Austin median price" figures can disagree without either being wrong.
This guide shows you which sources carry which metric for Austin, what reporting month each one was last published for, and how to read them against your own block. It is not a substitute for a comparative market analysis from a licensed agent or a licensed appraiser's opinion on a specific property.
Current Market Snapshot
Every row below names the organization that publishes the figure and the month it was reported for. Pull the live number from the source itself before you act on it — these series are revised and republished, and the reporting months do not line up with each other.
| Metric | Source and reporting period | How to read it for your street |
|---|---|---|
| Median sale price, all home types | Redfin, August 2026 (City of Austin) | Covers condos, townhomes and single-family together. A condo-heavy or new-build-heavy month pulls this median around without any individual home changing value. |
| Median days on market | Redfin, August 2026 (City of Austin) | Measures the typical listing, not yours. Redfin also publishes a Compete Score for Austin with an average time for homes to sell (Redfin, August 2026) — compare the two. |
| Homes sold | Redfin, August 2026 (City of Austin) | Thin sale counts make neighborhood medians jumpy. Check this before trusting a street-level median. |
| Months of supply (housing inventory) | Realty Austin, using Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors data, May 2026 | Austin-area, not city-limits. This is the metric that gets compared to the conventional six-month buyer/seller dividing line. |
| Active listings | Realty Austin, using Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors data, May 2026 | The denominator behind months of supply. Rising actives with flat sales pushes supply up. |
| Median home price, Austin market | Realty Austin, using Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors data, May 2026 | Different geography and month than the Redfin figure above. Expect the two to differ. |
| Median price, City of Austin | CultureMap Austin, reported 19 December 2025 for November 2025 | Useful as an earlier reference point for the city-limits figure. |
| Month-over-month change in homes sold and median sold price, single-family | Eleven Oaks Realty, March 2026 | Single-family only — excludes the condo segment that moves the all-home-types median. |
| Median price and inventory change | Team Price Real Estate, reported 14 April 2026 | A mid-spring checkpoint between the November 2025 and May 2026 readings. |
| Metro-level price change | FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index, Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown metro, Q4 2025 | Index level, not a dollar price. Repeat-sales based, so it is less distorted by mix shifts than a median. |
| Cumulative price growth vs. pre-pandemic | SmartAsset study, reported by CultureMap Austin, 2026 | A long-run comparison, not a current-month reading. |
| Neighborhood median sale price and year-over-year change | Redfin: Downtown Austin (August 2026), East Austin (May 2026), South Austin (undated) | The closest published proxy to "your street." Note the undated South Austin figure — treat it as the least current of the three. |
| New private housing units authorized by permits, Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown metro | U.S. Census Bureau via FRED (St. Louis Fed), January 2026 | Future competing supply, concentrated in suburban permitting jurisdictions rather than evenly across the city. |
| 30-year fixed mortgage rate, U.S. average | Freddie Mac, 1 October 2026 | National average — your quoted rate depends on loan type, credit, down payment and points. |
When a street-level median and the citywide median disagree, the citywide figure is usually not the one that matters to you.
What's Driving the Market Right Now
Two local forces show up most directly in the snapshot: supply coming out of the permit pipeline, and employment.
On supply, the Census Bureau's count of new private housing units authorized by building permits in the Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown metro (via FRED, January 2026) is the leading indicator behind the active-listing and months-of-supply figures that Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors data reported for May 2026. CultureMap Austin, citing a Newsweek analysis of Census Bureau data, reported the Austin metro's national ranking for total permits issued in 2024 — a reminder that this market adds competing new product at a pace most metros do not. Permits are a metro-wide number, so the effect is uneven: a new-home corridor in a fast-permitting suburb competes with your resale listing in a way that an inner-city block with little vacant land does not.
On employment, the Austin American-Statesman reported a decline in Tesla's Austin-area Gigafactory Texas employment during 2025. Separately, ABoR/Unlock MLS data for August 2026, as summarized by roshanbudhathoki.com, included jobs added locally. Those two pull in opposite directions, and the demand side of the market reflects the net — which is why you should read the August 2026 Redfin median days on market and homes sold alongside them rather than assuming any single employer headline moves your block.
Financing is the third input. Freddie Mac's average 30-year fixed rate as of 1 October 2026 is a national weekly average; it sets the broad affordability backdrop that affects how many buyers can bid, but it is not a rate you are entitled to. If you want to compare a monthly payment at today's rate against last year's, write down every input — purchase price, down payment, term, rate, Travis County property tax rate, and insurance — and run both scenarios with the same inputs. A payment figure without those inputs attached cannot be checked.
Finally, watch the sequencing across reporting months. Eleven Oaks Realty published month-over-month changes in homes sold and median sold price for the Austin single-family market in March 2026; Team Price Real Estate published median price and inventory change on 14 April 2026; Unlock MLS/ABoR data covers May 2026; Redfin's citywide figures cover August 2026. Reading those as one continuous trend line is the most common mistake, because they do not share a geography or a property-type filter.
Signs It's a Buyer's or Seller's Market
Each of these is checkable. Pull the current number from the named source and compare it to the stated threshold yourself — the published figure, not your impression of it, is what decides the answer.
- Months of supply against the six-month line. Take the Austin-area months-of-inventory figure from Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors data (Realty Austin, May 2026). Above six months conventionally favors buyers; below about three favors sellers; in between is contested. Check whether the current release has moved across either line since May 2026.
- Active listings trend, not level. Compare the active-listing count in the May 2026 Unlock MLS/ABoR report with the inventory change Team Price Real Estate reported on 14 April 2026. Rising actives month over month while sales are flat means supply is building regardless of what the median price did.
- Median days on market against Redfin's Compete Score. Redfin publishes both Austin's median days on market and an average time for homes to sell within its Compete Score (Redfin, August 2026). If your own listing passes the published median with no offer, that is a pricing signal, not bad luck.
- Year-over-year direction at the neighborhood level, not the city level. Redfin reports separate year-over-year changes for Downtown Austin (August 2026), East Austin (May 2026) and South Austin (undated). A negative year-over-year change in your neighborhood with a positive one citywide means the citywide number is irrelevant to your pricing decision.
- Sale volume behind the median. Check Redfin's homes-sold count for Austin (August 2026). When a neighborhood's monthly sale count is small, a single luxury closing can swing the median — verify before you treat a street-level change as real.
- Repeat-sales index as a cross-check on the median. Compare the direction of the FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for the Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown metro (Q4 2025) with the direction of the median. If they disagree, the median is probably reflecting a change in what sold, not a change in value.
- Permit pipeline in your submarket. Look at the Census Bureau permit series for the metro (via FRED, January 2026) and then at which jurisdictions issued them. Heavy new-construction competition within a few miles weakens a resale seller's position even when citywide supply looks tight.
Outlook for Buyers and Sellers
If you are buying. Your leverage comes from the months-of-supply figure in the Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors data (Realty Austin, May 2026) and from Redfin's median days on market for Austin (August 2026), read together. Where supply sits at or above the six-month mark and listings are passing the published median days on market, asking for repairs, closing-cost help, or a rate buydown is a reasonable opening position. Where your target neighborhood's Redfin year-over-year change — Downtown Austin (August 2026), East Austin (May 2026), South Austin (undated) — is running stronger than the citywide figure, expect less room, because the submarket is not behaving like the city. Then separate the market question from the financing question: get a written pre-approval and a rate lock quote with the inputs spelled out, because Freddie Mac's 1 October 2026 average 30-year fixed rate is a national average and says nothing about what any lender will offer you.
If you are selling. Price to the published median days on market for Austin (Redfin, August 2026) and to your neighborhood's own year-over-year change, not to the highest nearby closing you have heard about. If the current Unlock MLS/ABoR active-listing count has risen since the May 2026 reading, you are competing with more inventory than the last seller on your street did, and the first two weeks of showings are the data that tells you whether your price is right. Add the metro permit pipeline (Census Bureau via FRED, January 2026) to that calculation if new construction is selling within a few miles, since builders can discount with incentives you cannot match.
Neither side should treat an automated value — a Zestimate, a Redfin Estimate, or any other AVM — as the home's market or appraised value. They are statistical estimates, and the only numbers that settle a price are a licensed appraiser's opinion and what a buyer actually signs for. No closing date, sale price, or time on market is guaranteed for any individual property, whatever the medians say.
Frequently asked questions
Why do two sources give different median prices for Austin?
Because they measure different things. Redfin's August 2026 median sale price covers the City of Austin across all home types; the median home price in the Realty Austin report using Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors data covers the broader Austin market for May 2026; CultureMap Austin reported a City of Austin median for November 2025; and Eleven Oaks Realty's March 2026 figure is single-family only. Different geography, different property-type filter, different month. Compare a source only against itself over time.
How current is neighborhood-level data compared with citywide data?
It lags, and unevenly. Redfin's citywide Austin figures are published for August 2026, but its neighborhood pages are not all on the same clock — Downtown Austin carries an August 2026 median sale price and year-over-year change, East Austin a May 2026 one, and South Austin is undated. Treat the undated figure as the least reliable of the three, and check the sale count behind any neighborhood median before you rely on it.
Does the national mortgage rate tell me what I'll pay in Austin?
No. Freddie Mac's 1 October 2026 average 30-year fixed rate is a national weekly survey average. Your actual rate depends on loan type — conventional, FHA, VA or jumbo — plus credit, down payment, points and property type, and condos can price differently from single-family. Get written quotes, and when you compare payments, list price, down payment, term, rate, Travis County taxes and insurance so the math can be checked.
Is Austin a buyer's or seller's market right now?
Check the months-of-inventory figure in the Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors data (Realty Austin, May 2026) against the conventional six-month line, then check whether Redfin's median days on market for Austin (August 2026) is rising or falling. Those two together, for your property type and submarket, answer it — the citywide answer can be the opposite of the answer on your street, especially where the metro's permit volume (Census Bureau via FRED, January 2026) is adding new-build competition.
Should I use the FHFA index or the median price to judge whether my home's value changed?
Use both, for different purposes. The FHFA All-Transactions House Price Index for the Austin–Round Rock–Georgetown metro (Q4 2025) is repeat-sales based, so it is less distorted by changes in which homes happened to sell, but it is metro-wide and quarterly. The Redfin and Unlock MLS medians are more current and more local but move with sales mix. If they point in different directions, the mix is probably the explanation.
How far back should I look to judge whether prices have moved?
Long enough to clear the noise. CultureMap Austin, citing a SmartAsset study in 2026, reported Austin's cumulative home price growth compared with pre-pandemic levels — a very different question from the month-over-month change Eleven Oaks Realty reported for March 2026 or the inventory change Team Price Real Estate reported on 14 April 2026. Decide which horizon your decision actually depends on, and do not treat past growth over any period as an indication of what prices will do next.
Sources
- Redfin — Austin, TX Homes for Sale & Real Estate (2026-08)
- Redfin — housing market (2026-08)
- Realty Austin (Unlock MLS/Austin Board of Realtors data) — Austin Housing Market Report May 2026 (2026-05)
- Eleven Oaks Realty — March 2026 Austin Real Estate Price Report (2026-03)
- CultureMap Austin — Austin realtors predict confidence for buyers going into 2026 (2025-12-19)
- roshanbudhathoki.com (citing Austin Board of Realtors/Unlock MLS data) — Austin Housing Market August 2026: Resilient, Not Immune (2026-08)
- Team Price Real Estate (teamprice.com) — Austin Median Home Price Holds at $450K Amid Softening Market (2026-04-14)
- CultureMap Austin (citing SmartAsset study) — Austin saw 4th biggest drop in housing prices in the U.S. since 2025 (2026)
- Freddie Mac — Mortgage Rates Average 7.28% (2026-10-01)
- U.S. Census Bureau (via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) — New Private Housing Structures Authorized by Building Permits for Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX (MSA) (2026-01)
- Federal Housing Finance Agency (via FRED, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis) — All-Transactions House Price Index for Austin-Round Rock-Georgetown, TX (MSA) (2025-Q4)
- CultureMap Austin (citing Newsweek/Census Bureau analysis) — Austin booms as No. 6 metro for new home building in U.S. (2024)
- Austin American-Statesman (statesman.com) — Tesla employment in Austin fell 22% in 2025 amid sales slump (2025)
- Redfin — South Austin, Austin Housing Market: House Prices & Trends
- Redfin — 2026 Downtown Austin, Austin Housing Market: House Prices & Trends as of August (2026-08)
Written by
Tobias Lindqvist
Tobias covers floor plans, renovation trends, and the small design decisions that change how a home works. He's suspicious of trends that promise to 'future-proof' a house. He prefers writing about function over finishes.
